New Monte Carlo Randomization Options

In the upcoming Pathfinder 2022.3 release, the Monte Carlo simulation tool will receive two updates which expand randomization capabilities. By default, Occupant Sources will now produce a different result upon each iteration by using a different random seed. The generated occupants will follow the defined options from the Monte Carlo tool. Additionally, there are now options to include, exclude, and specify distribution of Profiles. Both of these additions provide more ways to control a batch simulation and further verify results.

New Monte Carlo Options — Before (left) and after (right) the update to include Profiles in the Monte Carlo options.

What is Monte Carlo?

The Monte Carlo method is a statistical modeling approach. For a given model, inputs are varied by a defined set of rules in order to produce different output values which can be averaged. Over many iterations, the averaged outputs provide a probability distribution which highlights the most likely outcomes. For Pathfinder, this means that a given PTH file can be automatically run multiple times with varying occupant positions, rooms, and now, Profiles. Plots can be generated which display occupant data such as Completion Times and Travel Distances for all iterations of the model.

Monte Carlo Occupant Source Randomization — This room, defined as an Occupant Source, generates Occupants with different positions, Profiles, and Behaviors for each iteration.

When is Monte Carlo used?

The Monte Carlo method is used in evacuation and ingress modeling to provide statistical verification of an analysis. By providing results from a range of inputs and averaging the resultant data, engineers can present a higher degree of confidence regarding occupant safety and satisfaction.

Where can I find more information about Pathfinder Monte Carlo simulations?

If you've never used it before, the Pathfinder Monte Carlo User Manual will provide all the information you need to get started.

When can I access this new feature?

These Monte Carlo randomization updates will be included in the Pathfinder 2022.3 release which is scheduled for December 7. For more feature previews, subscribe to our newsletter.